MAPI forecasts that manufacturing production will increase 4% in 2011 and advance by 3% in 2012. The forecast is down from 6% and 4%, respectively, from MAPI's May 2011 report in response to the weak consumer sector and business concerns about sales prospects.
However, it should outperform GDP growth, which MAPI estimates will be 1.6% in 2011 and 2.1% in 2012.
"A number of shocks adversely affected the economy and the manufacturing sector in the first half of 2011," said Daniel J. Meckstroth, Ph.D., chief economist for the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI."Abnormal events included severe winter weather and spring flooding, the Japanese tsunami's effect on the supply chain, high commodity prices (particularly food and oil), and a surge in home foreclosures. Fortunately, automakers are bumping up production schedules because of low inventories, and both food and oil prices are falling.
"In addition, energy and medical related goods and equipment as well as industrial-oriented machinery production continue growing at a fast pace," he added. "Business equipment production should be a driver of manufacturing growth in the second half of this year."
The report offers economic forecasts for 24 of the 27 industries. MAPI anticipates that 18 of the 24 industries will show gains in 2011, led by engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment with 23% growth. One industry, pharmaceuticals and medicine, will remain flat.
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